Trade ideal iwrap-up- GPB/USD
Although the British pound fell marginally below
1.5800, lack of follow through selling and current
rebound from 1.5790 suggest consolidation above
this level would be seen and test of previous
support at 1.5869 and possibly 1.5900 cannot be
ruled out, however, reckon upside would be
limited to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.5945-46)
and price should falter well below resistance at
1.6002 (yesterday's high), bring another decline
next week.
Below said support at 1.5790 would signal recent
decline is still in progress and extend weakness to
1.5780-85 (61.8% projection of 1.6525-1.5875
measuring from 1.6184) but reckon 1.5740-50
would limit downside and 1.5700-10 should hold,
risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place
later. As near term outlook is mixed, would be
prudent to stand aside for now.
=======================================
US Employment Rose in
October With Upward
Revisions to Prior Months
Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by RBC
Financial Group | Nov 07 14 15:39 GMT
US Employment Rose in October With Upward
Revisions to Prior Months
October 2014 non-farm payroll employment rose
by 214,000 and was below expectations for a
235,000 increase; however, September and
August employment growth were revised upward
to 256,000 (from 248,000) and 203,000 (from
180,000), respectively.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from
the separate household survey, declined to 5.8%
in October from 5.9% in September and 6.1% in
August.
Government employment in September rose by
5,000 with private employment up 209,000.
October 2014 payroll employment rose by
214,000 and was below market expectations for a
235,000 gain but followed upwardly revised
256,000 (was 248,000) and 203,000 (was
180,000) increases in September and August,
respectively. Government employment rose by
5,000 with the other 209,000 increase accounted
for by a gain in private payrolls. Upward revisions
were concentrated in the private sector with an
upward revision to private payroll employment in
September (to 244,000 from 236,000) and August
(to 200,000 from 175,000). The monthly gain in
October private employment reflected a 181,000
increase in service-producing jobs, in part a result
of solid 27,000 and 52,000 increases in the retail
and leisure components, respectively, while jobs
in good-producing industries increased by 28,000
in October after rising by 36,000 in September.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from
the separate household survey, declined to 5.8%
in October from 5.9% in September while the
participation rate inched upward to 62.8% from
62.7% during the same period.
The private-sector workweek increased to 34.6
hours in October from 34.5 in September. Along
with the rise in employment in the month, the
index of aggregate weekly hours worked increased
by 0.5%. That gain left the measure up by an
annualized 2.8% relative to its third-quarter 2014
average, which leaves it on track to post an
improvement in the fourth quarter relative to the
2.4% increase in all of the third quarter.
Despite indications of strengthening labour
markets, the index of average hourly earnings, the
principal wage measure in the report, inched
upward by just 0.1% in October, which left the
year-over-year rate unchanged from September at
2.0%.
Although the headline employment increase was
slightly below market expectations, the pace of
employment growth remained solid in October
and, with upward revisions to earlier months,
exceeded the 200,000 level for a ninth consecutive
month. This marks the longest monthly streak of
better than 200,000 gains since March 1995.
Along with a decline in the unemployment rate,
which now sits almost a full percentage point
below its end of year 2013 level, this points to a
still solid pace of improvement in labour markets.
The Federal Reserve cited “substantial
improvement in the outlook for labor markets” as
well as diminished disinflation risks and the
improved economic backdrop as factors
contributing to its decision to end monthly asset
purchases at last month’s FOMC meeting. Lower
oil prices will likely limit near-term headline CPI
inflation; however, we expect GDP growth will
continue at an above-potential pace in the fourth
quarter of 2014 after increasing by 3.5% and 4.6%
in the third and second quarters, respectively. A
growing economy should also be reflected in
further respectable job growth. With that said, the
Fed is likely to remain cautious, and our forecast
does not assume the first hike in the fed funds
target from its current 0.00% to 0.25% range until
mid-2015.
